By Antonio D. French
Filed Monday, August 07, 2006 at 8:43 AM
UPDATE: FINAL RESULTS ARE IN RED Labels: Election_Day, PubDef_News
Predictions are always dangerous. More often than not, you usually wish you just kept your mouth shut and looked smarter than you actually were. Oh well.
Before we get started, let's remember one thing: these are predictions about who I think will win tomorrow's elections, not endorsements or statements about who I want to win these races.
Okay, let's get into it.
In the 57th State Rep District:
Joe Palm -- 35% (29.53%)
Talibdin El-Amin -- 42% (43.79%)
Karla May -- 23% (26.68%)
The winner will be Talibdin El-Amin (Correct)
In the 58th State Rep District:
Rodney Hubbard -- 60% (73.3%)
Bill Haas -- 40% (26.7%)
The winner will be Rodney Hubbard (Correct)
In the 59th State Rep District:
Jeanette Mott Oxford -- 75% (81.03%)
Mark Rice -- 25% (18.97%)
The winner will be Jeanette Mott Oxford (Correct)
In the 60th State Rep District:
Bob Bartlett -- 5% (5.75%)
Shaun Simms -- 20% (12.53%)
Jamilah Nasheed -- 40% (43.92%)
Sharon Tyus -- 35% (37.8%)
The winner will be Jamilah Nasheed (Correct)
In the 72nd State Rep District:
Maria Chappelle Nadal -- 49% (64%)
Sandi Colquitt -- 51% (36%)
The winner will be Sandi Colquitt (Wrong)
In the 4th State Senate District:
Yaphett El-Amin -- 27% (24.89%)
Derio Gambaro -- 21% (22.97%)
Amber Boykins -- 18% (12.72%)
Jeff Smith -- 31% (36.41%)
Kenny Jones -- 3% (3.01%)
The winner will be Jeff Smith (Correct)
So there it is. And now we wait....
I would be remiss if I didn't direct you politicos to my consulting firm's website. Find A D French & Associates LLC at www.adfrench.com.
24 Comments:
So both you and Oracle predict a 2 out of 3 win for Team El-Amin, just different picks as the two winners.
8/07/2006 9:05 AM
Other than the 72nd, about which I know nothing, I think you are correct, at least as far as the winner of each race, if not also about the specific percentages, Antonio.
What I find very interesting is that while you support Yaphet El-Amin, you pick Jeff Smith to win, and the Oracle, who supports Jeff Smith, has picked Yaphet El-Amin. What does this say when you each think your candidate won't win?
8/07/2006 9:20 AM
By the way, I think you were very generous to Mark Rice, seeing as he isn't really running. Maybe he has enough name recognition from the last go-round to make you proud on that 25%, but Jeanette Mott Oxford's efforts to continue campaigning in a non-race are commendable.
8/07/2006 9:23 AM
Travis, for someone who spends so much time reading and commenting on this blog, I find it interesting that you think I'm "supporting" anyone in this race.
The only thing you could possible be referencing are my statements about it not being very "progressive" of Jeff Smith to want to join the long list of white St. Louis Democrats who represent majority black districts and continually benefit from lack of unity in the black political establishment.
In that way, Jeff Smith is nothing special.
What does separate Smith from most other politicians is his willingness to spend money and resources in an effort to prove a point and set an example. He knows he won't get anywhere near 20 or even 15% of the northside vote tomorrow, but he still campaigns there. That much is admirable.
Yes, it would mean a lot for black St. Louis for that seat to go back to an African-American. That would be a very big deal.
What I would have personally liked to see is for black political leaders to come together and select a qualified consensus candidate and for "progressive" whites like Jeff Smith to help that candidate to get elected.
As an African-American studies undergrad major and a PhD in political science, Smith knows better than most white folks just how significant that would have been.
But none of that happened. And St. Louis City will not get beyond many of its problems until something like that does happen.
Tomorrow, white folks are going to decide between Derio and Jeff. And black folk are going to decide between Yaphett, Amber and Kenny. Jeff will get a few black votes. Amber and Yaphett will get a few white votes. And St. Louis will continue its rate of "progress" as usual.
8/07/2006 9:51 AM
I think Jeff will be one of the strongest voices for urban issues ever sent to Jefferson City. Smith will be more of a "black senator" than Clinton ever was a "black president." And come the next election, Smith will be there to help someone other than Villa succeed Coleman to ensure our City's representation in the Missouri Senate remains as diverse as its population.
8/07/2006 10:04 AM
A French,
Your analysis is great as always. Bottom Line: No matter how you break down the 4th Senate race, Smith is the most unifying candidate...period.
8/07/2006 10:08 AM
Well put Antonio. I don't think Smith would have gotten anywhere near this campaign if quality other quality candidates had thrown their hat in the ring. These candidates never emerged. Those who are in the race have run campaigns that have been disturbing on several levels and reinforced our concerns about them.
Hopefully Smith will be rewarded for running an outstanding race across the district. His brand of politics could greatly benefit north, south and central st. louis and can inspire a new generation of candidates who regardless of race, class or geography we can all be proud of.
There is nothing wrong with politics that bringing quality people into the sytem can't fix. Smith's opponents have been very dirty this campaign. He has chosen to take the high road. I don't know if it will pay off but I hope others will cast their votes for him. Jeff's not a savior but he is certainly a step in the right direction for politics in St. Louis. I salute him for the example he has set with this campaign.
8/07/2006 10:42 AM
I think that the last poster has it exactly right. Whatever happens tomorrow, Jeff Smith ran a campaign that is an example for how politics can and should work.
I hope voters reward his hard work and integrity with a victory. It will be a sad day if a corrupt old-school politician like El Amin or Gambarro wins using the same old politics of destruction that keeps failed leaders in power.
8/07/2006 10:57 AM
Antonio, I don't think that anyone read or understood your post. I think that the bloggers are under orders to end every thread with "Jeff Smith is great." We will see tomorrow if this strategy works.
8/07/2006 11:25 AM
I think you have Rice about right. Unless he and his supporters can't get off their barstools.
I think you are giving Haas too many votes, but it always surprises me.
I couldn't even pick a winner in Nadal-Colquitt. The only thing that strikes me is that my street got hit with an All Children Matter mailing and if people realize what its about, it'll backfire there--perhaps not in other parts of the District however.
8/07/2006 11:42 AM
Smith gets too much credit for being great. HE and Gambaro are in a pissing fight against each other. Yaphette is trashing Smith and Boykins, even Kenny Jones is trashing someone - albeit the Mayor who's not even in the race.
Only Amber Boykins has kept the high road and not attacked any of the other candidates. If black people really wanted a win, they would have told El-Amin to wait and not give up her seat that she could have held for four more years.
It's one thing to talk about doing the right think but another do really do it. I agree that Smith, the progressive, should have put his money where his mouth is and support a black. But if he or Gambaro wins, it's because Yaphette got in the race.
8/07/2006 12:29 PM
These appear to be dead on accurate predictions.
I've recently began to waver between Kenny Jones (whom I met last Friday during the Ward 17 FDR Democrats Club meeting) and Jeff Smith.
I'm still leaning toward Jeff, though. He's the only unifying candidate in the race. Yaphett is "vote for me, I'm Black." Gamabaro is "vote for me, I'm Pro-Life, Italian, & White." Neither of these individuals are suited to public office. They are overly polarizing, and focus only on their "base." We don't need more of that.
8/07/2006 12:44 PM
11:25 Anonymous:
Our actual orders are:
"I love Jeff Smith.
He is better than 'Cats.'
I want to vote for him again and again."
(Readers not exposed to Saturday Night Live in the '90s won't get that.)
8/07/2006 2:12 PM
I do think that Shaun Simms can hang it up. The 60th State Rep seat is clearly etween Nasheed and Tyus. Bob Bartlet signs are starting to appear more, however he's too too late.
To tell the truth I lost a little faith in Boykins for not campaigning harder and I lost respect for Yahpett El- Amin because she should have waited her turn. The only afro- american female in the race should have been Boykins and they are all democrats.
The outcome of tomorrow's elections will be scary, but... who knows.
I can wait to see what the 5th Senate race would look like with Hubbard, Johnson, and Wright- Jones.
Vote Smart, Vote powerfully!!
8/07/2006 7:23 PM
Antonion:
I think you took my statements in a manner in which they were not meant. I assumed you were supporting candidate El-Amin because of statements you had made and the fact that she is one of your clients. Perhaps I am was mistaken in that assumption.
Beyond that, I will again state my firm belief that race has no place in this campaign. It should not matter the race, gender, religion, sexual orientation, creed, or gender that a candidate is, so long as that candidate can fully represent the entire district. Jeff Smith is the only candidate in this campaign that can or is willing do to so.
Further, I think you under estimate black voters in this city to say they cannot see beyond race to vote for Jeff Smith. It would be in the best interest of all residents within the 4th district to vote for Jeff Smith, black residents included. Jeff Smith can and will represent his black constituents as well as, if not better than, candidates Boykins and El-Amin. It is almost unfortunate that Jeff Smith is white because if he were black, we would have the candidate that you described: "...a qualified consensus candidate and for 'progressive' whites ... to help that candidate to get elected."
Finally, I whole-heartedly agree with you that race and racism are holding back St. Louis and that we must deal with those issue in order for us all to progress. I am currently working on a post for my blog, which will likely take weeks, that addresses that elephant in the room.
Oracle:
You crack me up, man!
8/07/2006 9:09 PM
Oracle and APundit,
LOL LOL, oh no I just spit up my water all over my keyboard again about that one anonymous take. Dude, yea Jeff has served up the Kool Aid to the over 90,000 doors he and his campaign have knocked on and it has worked. Dude, pass over what your smoking my man or woman!
8/07/2006 9:16 PM
Travis, how "progressive" you are. You have really set an example for us all with your brave support of a candidate of the same race, gender, sexual orientation, and age group as yours -- and you're even working on your PhD in Poli Sci just like Jeff too! Man, you're stepping out of your comfort zone there, aren't ya?!
8/07/2006 10:41 PM
And Yaphett is not a client of mine.
8/07/2006 10:46 PM
Antonio:
First, you must have me confused with someone else, because I am not working on a PhD, let alone in PoliSci. I liked school, just not that much.
More importantly, I recognize that supporting Jeff Smith's candidacy is not the greatest test of my progressive ways, but that does not diminish the fact that he is the best representative for the 4th, and would represent all residents of the 4th better than any other candidate in this race.
Finally, would it make you feel more at ease to learn that I support State Rep. Jeanette Mott Oxford, who is a woman? Or, Michael McMillan, who is African-American? Or, Gregg Daly, who has a few years on me? Does my support of any of those candidates truly make me more progressive? I think, and hope, not. Let's move beyond personal traits and talk about issues that will improve our St. Louis.
8/07/2006 11:42 PM
You're right, Travis. I got you and Joe mixed up on the PhD thing. But you get my point. Please stop saying how enlightened you are and how in the dark everyone else is when it comes to supporting candidates.
You as a young white guy supporting Jeff Smith are no different than old Italians on the Hill supporting Gambaro or black muslims supporting El-Amin.
And neither McMillan, Daly or Oxford have any serious competition.
And please stopping trying to deal with St. Louis' race issues by ignoring the significance of race all together.
8/08/2006 9:26 AM
Not looking to pick a fight here or defend anyone. But how do you end racism without "ignoring the significance of race all together."
TimR
8/08/2006 12:38 PM
Thanks Antonio for pointing out that McMillan, Daly and Oxford have no serious opposition. Between the three, Oxford is the only one worth being in office.
Daly got his job through Marty Aboussie, he'd made no real contributions to society other than his attire.
McMillan got put on the ballot with support from Slay, Carnahan and Suggs because they know he can be controlled. If he'd had real opposition, no matter how much money was involved, he'd lose. He'd never reached out to whites other than his colleagues and whomever Biondi and Schoemehl directed him to. The guy only has a high school diploma. Guess how many of his own colleagues are more qualified than he. He got lucky this time. Affirmative action proponents must be proud.
8/08/2006 5:21 PM
I thought McMillan was a SLU graduate?
8/09/2006 10:34 AM
I think that your logic is flawed and challenge you to come up with the beginning to the end of racism. Other than that it's just "progress as usual" in St. Louis.
TimR
8/10/2006 8:03 AM
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